There are so many predictions about the future business trends. Some idle surfing has lead me to an article from 1965 outlining strategy for the 1980s. Has our view of the future changed much since then?
This article*, from the September 1965 edition of the Harvard Business Review, is by H Igor Ansoff, the Professor of Industrial Administration famed for his matrix relating to business expansion strategy.
In his article, he is forecasting what the 1980s might look like. Spandau Ballet and shoulder pads do not feature, so he did not get everything right. But his predictions and comments seemed to strike a tone which seems contemporary, even some 35 years later than the period he was talking about, and 52 years from when he wrote the article.
Have a look at the following, and see if you also think he could be talking about 2020:
- The impact of information technology
- Management obsolescence by computer
- Product dynamics – and the need for R&D spending to exceed other investment in plant & machinery
- Market dynamics – “the saturation of demand”, and how many industries may have reached their peak and now face decline.
- The firm and society – asking how the firm should be constrained following “smash grab imperialism”.
- “The keynote is change”
- Automation & IT – programme decision making
- “The entrepreneurial decisions of the firm fall into a class called nonprogrammable”
I note many trends from today which could parallel Ansoff’s comments:
- Recent Economist article about the need for Lifelong learning to avoid obsolescence
- R&D expenditure: look where companies are investing. There is still plenty of plant & machinery, but Tesla’s new battery & car factory in Nevada shows where the money is being spent.
- Saturation of demand – Seen the car market sales in the UK recently?
- The firm & society – Regulation following the 2007 crash, and associated scandals in finance?
- The keynote is change – how many times have I – and you – heard this over the last 10 years?
Ansoff furthers his thoughts about where management would need to succeed – from 1965 into the 1980s:
- Firms structured to give problems continuous attention
- Management structure must be conducive to innovation
- “the age of change and automation will call for increased management skills in human relations”
- And I love this line – “it is difficult to see why anyone should worry about management obsolescence by the computer”
One thing we can agree on: no one KNOWS what the future holds. We all have our opinion, and I will confess that I have been giving thought to the changes in technology we are currently witnessing and what impact these have on how we manage, and the strategy we should adopt to shape our futures.
We can take from this article several strategies, and I personally enjoyed the contrast of Ansoff’s views and his optimism with some of the scarier views I see today about what the future will hold.
There is much talk in 2017 about VUCA**. But maybe we – as a society – have been here before? I do not know if Ansoff is wholly correct in all his predictions, but I like the idea that we will need to continue to innovate, and that automation will put a greater emphasis on the management of human relations.
That sounds like 2 strands of a strategy to me.
Or should we be worried about management obsolescence by computer?
* https://hbr.org/1965/09/the-firm-of-the-future
**Volatility, Uncertainty, Change, Ambiguity